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The historical evidence and the economic literature confirm that international trade can play an important role in smoothing negative economic shocks experienced by a country. There is, however, a growing body of evidence that trade can also act as a transmission channel for localized crises, especially those affecting major importers or exporters of key commodities.
This session will present analysis of these dynamics in the context of climate change, assessing the potential, trade-related, cascading macroeconomic and sectoral effects on the EU, triggered by impacts on agricultural commodities, energy demand, and supply chain stresses associated with the interruption of important maritime trade nodes. The effects of these dynamics on food markets will also be discussed, through case studies of international food systems and Brazilian soy.
- Francesco Bosello, Senior Scientist, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change
- Emilie Stokeld, Research Assistant, SEI York
- Joe Simpson, Research Assistant, SEI York
- Richard King, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House
- Rania Zaatour, Postdoctoral Researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)