Trade-linked cross-border climate impacts have the potential to severely disrupt the European economy. Yet, the research landscape that surrounds these potential impacts remains in a relatively nascent stage. Importantly, whilst quantitative approaches can be applied in isolation to develop our understanding of cascading cross-border impacts, these should ideally be supplemented by the broader development of knowledge as to how initial climate triggers might evolve via trade systems, might interact with the actions and activities of supply chain actors, and how the wider policy landscape might act as an enabler or barrier to EU climate resilience.
The objective of this deliverable is to provide a set of preliminary policy insights resulting from a summary and synthesis of outputs from WP3 of the CASCADES project. Outputs of WP3 encompass the quantitative results of models applied to the exploration of the impacts of climate change on EU trade-linked systems, and qualitative analysis of stakeholder viewpoints – supplemented by information from the wider literature – which highlights key climate-linked concerns, potential responses, and interactions with policy.
The deliverable is divided below into three main sections. The first provides a synthesis and related policy implications based on a summary of the outcomes of research activities conducted in CASCADES WP3. Then, the remainder of the report is divided into discrete summaries of the analysis conducted. Analysis Section 1 summarises the quantitative outcomes of WP3 models. Analysis Section 2 summarises the qualitative components of WP3 within the form of three focal trade-linked case studies: a) food systems, b) the soy supply chain, c) energy transition minerals. The depth and breadth of these three case studies differs (more explanation on scope of coverage and methods applied can be found in Analysis Section 2). The Deliverable overall is intended to act as a starting point for (for food systems and soy supply chains) a more in-depth exploration of the policy environment that surrounds trade-linked cross-border impacts that will link to WP6 of the CASCADES project.