To understand climate impacts, it is crucial to identify vulnerabilities and causal pathways that interact and lead to second- or third-order impacts, in the short, medium and long-term.
Direct and indirect climate change impacts and socioeconomic vulnerabilities in regions of special importance for European security, development and foreign policies determine the climate impacts outside Europe that potentially cascades into Europe. To understand these impacts it is crucial to identify climate impacts and vulnerabilities that interact and lead to second- or third-order impact risk cascades in the short-, medium and long-term. These can be matched with the existing and potential future main trade partners, key supply and value chains, businesses and financial flows that link Europe with the world to provide an overview of cascading climate impacts on Europe.
- We will develop a comprehensive conceptual framework to define and assess cascading climate impacts on Europe. The framework will highlight how to conceptualize cascading risks and will consider risk not only as a function of the climate hazard, but also of the underlying exposure and vulnerability, and the adaptations made to mitigate this exposure and vulnerability.
- We will analyse Europe’s existing and possible future links with the rest of the world in terms of trade, supply and value chains, businesses, financial links and security, development and foreign policy. The analysis will assess the climate sensitivity of these different connections, also accounting for future alternative development trajectories.
- We will quantify direct and indirect natural and human climate impacts inside and outside Europe in the short/medium/long term under a range of socio-economic and climate scenarios. The analysis will be based on ISIMIP data covering slow changes such as sea-level rise and agricultural productivity but also extreme events such as floods, droughts or wildfires.