Trade relationships are major sources of climate change risk to the EU’s social and economic systems. These trade systems are conveyors of risks, transmitting pressures on prices of key commodities (such as food and energy) and/or services, originating outside the EU. Such commodities and services are also directly affected by these risks, being subjected to interruptions and collapses induced by climate change physical impacts on trade infrastructures/routes or, more indirectly, by interruptions fostered by climate induced conflicts. Aim of WP3 is to investigate both sources of potential cascading risks using a mix of quantitative-modelling approaches.
- to identify the climate risks for European trade relationships as well as those that are transmitted to, and throughout, Europe through direct and indirect international supply chains and related cascading effects.
- to assess direct and indirect economic consequences of these risks across the short (up to 2030), and medium (up to 2050) term with an exploratory long-term view (up to 2100).
- to highlight, during this process, current and future critical European trade networks, partners, and commodities from the perspective of climate change trade-risk transmission via international supply chains and global markets.
- to provide policy guidance on mitigation and adaptation options able to increase resilience to climate risk exposure and to mainstream them in integrated policy development in public and private settings.