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About

CASCADES identifies how the risks of climate change to countries, economies and peoples beyond Europe might cascade into Europe. It does so by analysing how these risks interact with major challenges facing European societies. We are working with a diverse range of stakeholders – both within and outside Europe – to support the design of a coherent European policy framework to address these risks.

Overview

Europe is strongly linked to the rest of the world via trade, value chains, business operations and financial investments, as well as its security, development and diplomatic interests.

While direct climate change risks in Europe are relatively well-studied, less is known about how climatic impacts beyond the continent, might trigger risk cascades that affect Europe itself.

However, while direct climate change risks in Europe are relatively well-studied, less is known about how climatic impacts beyond the continent, might trigger risk cascades that affect Europe itself.Moreover, it remains unclear what effect such cascading risks, and potential responses to them, will have on existing and future challenges facing European societies, such as water and energy scarcity, socio-political tensions, rising inequality, financial instability, conflicts and changing security threats.

figure showing cascading impact in food system — Credit: From Challinor et al

Methodology

CASCADES is based on state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative research and stakeholder engagement approaches. The project builds on established climate change impact simulations to develop scenarios and inform a wide range of new models. These models simulate changing trade patterns and supply chains, and acute and chronic geophysical risks to agricultural production and global energy and commodity markets. The results from these models are combined with tailored macro-financial network modelling, qualitative policy analysis, and strategic policy simulations. These, together with an ambitious programme of stakeholder engagement, which is needed to identify critical areas of concern and explore different solutions, enable CASCADES to co-produce actionable knowledge with and for key actors within and beyond Europe.